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<글로벌 트렌드 2035(영어)> What is Global Trends?
Every four years since 1997, the National Intelligence Council has published an unclassified strategic assessment of how key trends and uncertainties might shape the world over the next 20 years to help senior US leaders think and plan for the longer term. The report is timed to be especially relevant for the administration of a newly elected US President, but Global Trends increasingly has served to foster discussions about the future with people around the world. We believe these global consultations, both in preparing the paper and sharing the results, help the NIC and broader US Government learn from perspectives beyond the United States and are useful in sparkling discussions about key assumptions, priorities, and choices.
How we do Global Trends?
The NIC Global Trends project involves extensive research and consultations with people inside the US government and around the world. We reviewed key assumptions and trends, starting with an examination of regions that was aggregated to identify broader global dynamics. We explored the implications of various trends and discontinuities over the near term (5 years) and long term (20 years). We made extensive use of analytic simulations to explore future trajectories and developed multiple scenarios to describe how key uncertainties and emerging trends might combine to produce alternative futures.
Thinking about the future is vital but hard. Crises keep intruding, making it all but impossible to look beyond daily headlines to what lies over the horizon. In those circumstances, thinking “outside the box,” to use the cliché, too often loses out to keeping up with the inbox. That is why every four years the National Intelligence Council (NIC) undertakes a major assessment of the forces and choices shaping the world before us over the next two decades.
This version, the sixth in the series, is titled, “Global Trends: The Paradox of Progress,” and we are proud of it. It may look like a report, but it is really an invitation, an invitation to discuss, debate and inquire further about how the future could unfold. Certainly, we do not pretend to have the definitive “answer.”
Long-term thinking is critical to framing strategy. The Global Trends series pushes us to reexamine key assumptions, expectations, and uncertainties about the future. In a very messy and interconnected world, a longer perspective requires us to ask hard questions about which issues and choices will be most consequential in the decades ahead–even if they don’t necessarily generate the biggest headlines. A longer view also is essential because issues like terrorism, cyberattacks, biotechnology, and climate change invoke high stakes and will require sustained collaboration to address.
The National Intelligence Council (NIC) serves as the US Intelligence Community's center for the long-term strategic analysis. Since 1979, the NIC has served a bridge between the intelligence and policy communities—as well as a facilitator for outreach to outside experts. The NIC's National Intelligence Officers, drawn from government, academia, and the private sector, are the IC's senior substantive experts on a range of issues and work under the auspices of the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI). The NIC covers the regions of the world as well as functional topics, such as economics, security, technology, cyber, terrorism, and the environment. The NIC coordinates Intelligence Community support for US policy deliberations while producing papers and formal National Intelligence Estimates (NIEs) on critical national security questions.
Letter From The NIC Chairman
The Future Summarized
The Map of the Future
Trends Transforming the Global Landscape
Near Future: Tensions are Rising
Three Scenarios for the Distant Future: Islands, Orbits, Communities
What The Scenarios Teach Us: Fostering Opportunities Through Resilience
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